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Sell-Side Analysts See 0.2-0.4% Sept Core CPI

US

Below is a table compiling various sell-side analysts' expectations for the September CPI report. Expectations for core CPI range from 0.2% to 0.36% M/M, with the headline range similarly narrow at 0.2% to 0.4%.

  • Expected deflationary core categories include core goods, led by used cars; core services are seen relatively steady vs August at +0.4% M/M, with OER ticking higher but rents a little lower, hotel costs flipping from negative to positive, and airfares softening significantly.
  • Energy inflation is seen pulling back sharply to 1% or below from 5.6% M/M in Aug, led by a sharp drop in gasoline prices (to 2% from over 10% M/M). Food inflation is seen ticking a little higher.


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