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Sell-Side Opinion Split On Dec FOMC Action

FED

Based on MNI's review of 25 sell-side previews of the December FOMC meeting, it is clear consensus (and indeed all but unanimous) that the Fed will introduce new "qualitative, objective-based" guidance for its asset purchase program.

  • But opinion is split on whether the Fed will deliver a change in the asset purchase program itself in Dec.
  • While the options are broadly agreed (extending weighted average maturity of purchases 'WAM'; increase the size of purchases; or both), analysts who expect action are unanimous in expecting an increase in WAM rather than an increase in size. 9 of the 25 expect a WAM increase, 8 of them in December.
  • The major outlier is CIBC, who see the Fed increasing WAM but slowing the pace (and not in December).


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