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Sell-side reactions to inflation print

SWEDEN
  • Nordea: "There are currently strong forces pushing up inflation, making it difficult to predict. This in turn makes it difficult to assess monetary policy. Our call is that the first rate hike will be in June, but the high March reading increases the probability of a rate hike in April."
  • Swedbank: "The substantial forecast revision by the Riksbank later in April will most likely result in a huge policy reversal to maintain confidence in the Riksbank’s inflation targeting. We therefore feel confident with our call for an interest rate hike at the April meeting, followed by 5 more consecutive hikes."
  • Handelsbanken: "Today's high inflation print strengthens our call that the Riksbank's April meeting will see the Executive Board announcing that it expects to start raising the policy rate in June, rather than the board striking a more cautious tone with a more loosely held guidance for a hike sometime in H2 2022. There is of course uncertainty, not least growth risks emanating from Russia's war in Ukraine, that could speak for the latter option, but we think surging inflation is now firmly the priority for the Riksbank. However, we continue to see market pricing of the Riksbank policy rate as too aggressive, and our forecast is for the next Riksbank rate rise to not come until November"
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