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Sell-Side Sees Norges Remaining Troubled by Core Inflation

NORWAY
  • Danske Bank see services prices as clearly still rising, and much reason to suggest that NOK will remain weak for some time. As such they revised their NB view to see 25bps hikes in August as well as June.
  • Nomura see CPI at 6.3%, and expect core inflation to be resilient, and will likely concern Norges Bank going forward given their lower forecasts in March.
  • SEB predict that the sideways trend for CPI-ATE will continue until the beginning of 2024. Food prices increased sharply in April, and they predict more price hikes during the next 3-4 months.
  • Nordea expect lower headline inflation due to lower energy prices, however, core inflation will likely rise further. They see core inflation remaining supported by the end of the supermarket “price wars” in April, with core inflation contributing to a higher rate path at the June meeting. They still expect NB to raise rates to 4% by September.
  • Handelsbanken expect CPI-ATE at 6.3%, which would add pressure to the Norges Bank. They currently see the policy rate peaking at 3.75%, but if inflation surprises on the upside, there is a clear risk that the peak could be even higher.
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