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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
FED
Looking through 28 sell-side FOMC meeting previews ahead of tomorrow's decision:
- All analysts expect the FOMC to hike rates by 50bp and announce the start of balance sheet reduction at the May meeting. Most see a 50bp hike in June as well, though Nomura stands out with its expectation for 75bp increases in both June and July.
- Nomura also has the highest “terminal” rate in the cycle, seeing a 3.75-4.00% range by mid-2023, ie 375bp of total hikes. A few see 325-350bp. Others don’t see the Fed getting that far, with terminal rate expectations closer to 2.50%.
- We have begun seeing few recession calls emerge for late 2023 (eg Deutsche, Rabobank).
- While analysts are agreed that the FOMC will announce terminal balance sheet runoff “caps” totalling $95B, there are minor disagreements over the timing of the initial reductions (some see mid-May, others see June) and the initial cap sizes (from $19B to $65B) and the phase-in period (consensus 3 months, some see 4 to 6 months).
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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