May 29, 2024 16:59 GMT
Sell-side Views Ahead of 7y Auction
US TSYS
Just under 10 minutes out from the 7y auction - sell-side views pre-auction:
- BMO: There has been a considerable backup in Treasury yields over the last couple of weeks leaving today's 7-year auction in a position to clear >4.50% for the fourth time this cycle. With 7-year rates trading >25 bp off the post-CPI lows and 7s having more-than-erased all the gains made in the wake of April's NFP/CPI releases, a subset of dip-buyers may be emboldened by the magnitude of the outright cheapening. On net, the extension of the selloff in the wake of yesterday's supply events leaves us incrementally more encouraging to see stronger end-user demand for 7s versus 2s and 5s, though we're biased for a small tail this afternoon.
- JPM: The 7-year sector has outperformed along the curve over the month and now appears rich to the wings. With yields near the middle of recent ranges and the sector appearing somewhat rich along the curve, they think the auction should require some further concession in order to be digested smoothly.
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