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of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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Free AccessSell-side views update
- There remains a unanimous expectation among sell-side economists that Bank Rate will be raised by 25bp in both June and August.
- Some analysts now look for 1-2 hawkish dissents following the CPI print. No one explicitly is calling for 3+ votes for 50bp. Most believe it doesn’t really matter if we have 1 or 2 dovish dissenters in terms of market reaction.
- Most expect the guidance to be left unchanged, but some look for more hawkish language or a commitment to examine the reasons for the upside inflation prints in the August MPR.
- Goldman Sachs has joined Barclays and BNP with a 5.50% terminal rate forecast. Berenberg and TD Securities increased from 5.00% to 5.25%.
- 47% of analysts expect a 5.00% terminal rate, 38% look for 5.25% while 14% look for 5.50%.
- A fair number of analysts also point to upside risks to their forecasts. No one sees any 50bp hikes in their base case – but most see August as more likely for a 50bp hike than June.
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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.