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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
POLAND
- In the past two months, selling pressure on PLN has remained elevated despite the recent aggressive hikes by the NBP.
- NBP surprised the market in its last two meetings, raising the policy rate by 40bps last month (vs. no change expected) and again hiking by 75bps last week (vs. 25bps exp.).
- We have seen recently that there are many risks for Polish risky assets in the near to medium term: ongoing dispute with EU bloc, FX loan settlement, significant rise in LT interest rates...
- In addition, the 2Y10Y yield curve recently inverted, increasing the risk of a recession.
- With the Fed tapering and recession risks rising in some EM economies, risk Is skewed to the downside for PLN.
- USDPLN reached a local high of 4.0460 (slightly above 61.8% Fibo retracement of the 3.6170 – 4.3080 range); next resistance to watch on the topside stands at 4.10, followed by 4.1450 (76.4% Fibo).
Source: Bloomberg/MNI
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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