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Selling Pressure on PLN Remains High, HUF Stronger Following NBH Statement

CEE FX
  • The USD continues to trend higher today as the rising uncertainty over the economic outlook keeps supporting 'safe' asset such as the greenback.
  • US, economic data showed that retail sales came in higher than expected in October at +1.7% MoM (vs. 1.4% exp.); household demand remained resilient last month despite rising inflation.
  • Selling pressures on PLN remains elevated despite recent NBP aggressive hikes; USDPLN tested the 4.11 level earlier, its highest level since May 2020. With Fed tapering and political and economic activity rising in Poland, risk is skewed to the downside for PLN.
  • HUF is higher today as hawkish comments from Virag in addition to NBH statement reversed the negative momentum on the forint following the central bank 'dovish' hike (30bps).
  • USDCZK is slightly down today, and the risk is also skewed to the downside for CZK as the new Covid restrictions could lead to a significant downward revision in growth expectations, therefore weighing on the koruna.

Source: Bloomberg/MNI

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