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Sellside Views Update - December 2022

BOE
  • Only 3 analysts changed their views following the December meeting: Berenberg now expect a final 25bp hike in February (rather than December being the last hike), NatWest Markets had expected 75bp in December and keeps its terminal rate unchanged at 4.25% by adding a 25bp March hike while Nomura also expected a 75bp December hike and keeps its Feb/March expectations unchanged so lowers its terminal rate by 25bp to 4.25%.
  • 16/21 (76%) of analysts look for a 50bp hike in February (with a number noting risks of 25bp) with the remaining 5 analysts expecting a slowdown to 25bp.
  • 81% of analysts expect a terminal rate in a 4.00%-4.50% range (unchanged from pre-meeting).
  • For the full document click here.
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