Sept FOMC Minutes Preview: Analysts Eye Risk Balance And SEP "Puzzle" (2/2)

A few sell-side takes on what to watch for in today's September minutes:

• Barclays: "We look for clues...about the logic behind the FOMC's puzzling projections, which showed the same degree of disinflation, despite higher rates and an improved outlook for activity."
• Citi: Minutes are likely to show an ongoing debate about balancing the risks of doing too much vs doing too little. "If officials want to temper the clearly hawkish outcome of the meeting, minutes may emphasize that policy rates are either at or close to sufficiently restrictive levels."
• Deutsche: "may provide more color with respect to how officials are assessing the potential need for further tightening as well as their confidence in the 'soft landing' projections that the SEP appeared to embrace...we will be scrutinizing the minutes for any discussions of the longer-run neutral rate as the latest Fed forecasts indicate that at least some officials are embracing a higher longer-run neutral rate."
• Scotiabank: The challenge "is whether the market reaction [to the September FOMC's communications] surprised the FOMC or not and hence whether the minutes will be stale on arrival. Recent comments from San Fran Fed President Daly suggest that the reaction was perhaps a surprise to them."