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September CPI Review and Sell-side Analysis

SWEDEN

The Riksbank have released details of their underlying measures of inflation, as well as the Y/Y prints for goods and services separately, which provides additional insight into the stronger-than-expected September CPI print earlier.

  • The 85% trimmed mean measure was +6.10% Y/Y (vs +6.06% prior) while “UND24” (where prices that only vary a little are given a higher weighting) was +6.01% Y/Y (vs +6.34% prior).
  • Services inflation was flat, printing at +7.01% Y/Y (vs +7.0% prior), while goods ex-energy ticked up slightly at +7.10% Y/Y (vs +7.0% prior).
  • The majority of analyst reviews that we have seen expect a rate hike in November but note that the development of the SEK and the October inflation print will be equally as important as today’s figure in the Riksbank’s assessment.
  • Our review including sell-side views is available at this link.

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