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September Inflation Data Expected To increase To 5.25% Y/y

BRAZIL
  • Consumer prices for September, as measured by the IPCA index, will be released at 1300GMT/0800ET. While the annual headline rate is expected to edge higher from the Mid September reading of 5.00% Y/y, the latest central bank Focus survey of expectations, released on Monday, continues to see 2023 year-end inflation at 4.86%.
    • September IBGE Inflation IPCA M/m, est. 0.33%, prior 0.23%
    • September IBGE Inflation IPCA Y/y, est. 5.25%, prior 4.61%
  • BRL depreciation, combined with recent data showing a still resiliently tight labor market, reduces the downside risk to JPMorgan’s below-consensus call for inflation ahead, particularly for the beginning of 2024. Full note: https://marketnews.com/jpmorgan-ahead-of-tomorrows-ipca-inflation-data
  • Central bank Governor Campos Neto continues to have meetings in Marrakesh as part of the World Bank and IMF meetings. Separately, development bank BNDES holds seminar with Petrobras CEO Jean Paul Prates and Brazil’s VP Geraldo Alckmin.
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