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September PMIs On Tap Tomorrow

CHINA DATA

A reminder that the China September PMIs print tomorrow. The consensus looks for a further recovery in the manufacturing PMI to 49.7 from 49.4 in August. The range of estimates is 49.0 to 50.5. For services, the market expects an easing in conditions to 52.4 from 52.6. Not surprisingly, the range of estimates is wider for this print: 49.5 to 53.0. The Caixin manufacturing PMI is expected to be unchanged at 49.5.

  • August real activity data surprised on the upside, particularly in terms of retail sales, so the services PMI could come under great focus tomorrow.
  • For the services sector, recall that the large city of Chengdu was locked down for a good proportion of September, so this may have weighed on services activity in the month.
  • The Standard Chartered SME survey has also already printed for September, and it eased back to 50.90 in terms of the headline index. This is the second monthly decline for the index, although we remain above May lows of 48.50.
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