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Free AccessSF Fed On Growing Importance Of Inflation Expectations On Wage Setting
- SF Fed research shows that the impact of inflation expectations on wage growth has increased from a coefficient of 0.12 (not statistically different from zero) in the pre-pandemic sample to a statistically significant 0.98, essentially a 1 to 1 pass-through, post-pandemic
- In addition, with the pandemic, wages exhibit somewhat lower persistence, from 0.63 to 0.41, as would be expected when price inflation is not stable and feeds more directly into wages.
- “The more inflation continues to grow, the more expectations will drift, and the larger the effect on price and wage inflation. Should this dynamic linger, one risks the makings of an inflation-wage spiral.”
Source: SF Fed
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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.