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Free AccessSF Fed's Daly Tells Axios Biden Infra Plan Won't Change Fed Rate/ Infl View
SF Fed Pres Daly tells Axios that she expects that Pres Biden's $2trn+ infrastructure package - if passed - wouldn't change either the Fed's rate or inflation outlook. This is largely because she expects the related investment to boost potential growth.
- Axios quotes her as saying: "I put it in there as a boost overall on growth, should those [bills] pass but I don't put it in as a big pickup in inflation because I think of it as creating an additional supply effect — more workers coming into the labor force, better output, the roads and bridges and digital infrastructure improve...This is really good for our economy. It allows us to grow faster."
- Daly - a 2021 voter - sits more toward the dovish end of the FOMC spectrum.
- Now that the infra plan's been published, will be interesting to get more FOMC members' takes on its potential medium/long-term impact. Of course the bill has a way to go before being passed, but if the outcome is seen as growth positive/non-inflationary, it could give FOMC members more room to keep policy easy alongside stronger employment/GDP forecasts, without concerns that inflation/expectations will become troublesome.
- Also interesting would be perceptions that r-star, the natural rate of interest, could be nudged higher based on the infra bill generating stronger potential growth (NY Fed's Williams, for one, has written on strong infra / R&D investment impacts on raising r-star).
- Unclear whether Daly discussed the plan's higher taxes potentially offsetting growth benefits.
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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.