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Share Of States Triggering Sahm Rule Plateaus

US DATA
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  • Released Friday, state-level unemployment data for April saw the share of states that have triggered the Sahm rule hold at 38% having dipped from 40% in Jan-Feb.
  • This state-wide share had ramped higher at the turn of the year but, unusually compared to earlier recessions, has since plateaued. The national-wide measure meanwhile ticked up to 0.34 (calculated off unrounded u/e rates) but remains firmly below the 0.5 historically indicative of recession.
  • The flatlining adds weight to Claudia Sahm criticizing those using this approach when the share initially increased, arguing the rule is meant to be on a national basis.
  • That’s not least because of different immigration flows by state: “The three [states] with highest immigrant share in their state population — California (27%), New Jersey (24%), and New York (27%) — have some of the largest increases in unemployment.”

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  • Released Friday, state-level unemployment data for April saw the share of states that have triggered the Sahm rule hold at 38% having dipped from 40% in Jan-Feb.
  • This state-wide share had ramped higher at the turn of the year but, unusually compared to earlier recessions, has since plateaued. The national-wide measure meanwhile ticked up to 0.34 (calculated off unrounded u/e rates) but remains firmly below the 0.5 historically indicative of recession.
  • The flatlining adds weight to Claudia Sahm criticizing those using this approach when the share initially increased, arguing the rule is meant to be on a national basis.
  • That’s not least because of different immigration flows by state: “The three [states] with highest immigrant share in their state population — California (27%), New Jersey (24%), and New York (27%) — have some of the largest increases in unemployment.”