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Short-end yields moving higher ahead of BOE decision

BONDS
  • STIR futures continue to push lower in both Europe and the UK, with short-dated govvie yields seeing upward pressure as a result. However, these move are only really pushing yields back to levels seen last week. As a result, curves are bear flattening.
  • The BOE monetary policy decision is the highlight of the day, with the decision and MPR due at 12:00BST / 7:00ET and the press conference at 12:30BST / 7:30ET. The MNI Markets team sees a subjective 70% probability of a 50bp hike today, with a 25bp hike if not. 64% of the analyst previews we have read look for a 50bp hike while markets price in around an 80% probability of a 50bp hike today. In addition, we will receive an update regarding balance sheet policy. It is unclear how much detail we will receive this week with the MPC expected to hold a September confirmatory vote before beginning active gilt sales. See the full MNI BOE Preview here.
  • Elsewhere we have US trade balance and weekly jobless claims as well as Fed's Mester speaking.
  • TY1 futures are up 0-1+ today at 120-04+ with 10y UST yields up 3.2bp at 2.738% and 2y yields up 4.3bp at 3.111%.
  • Bund futures are down -0.08 today at 156.88 with 10y Bund yields up 0.7bp at 0.878% and Schatz yields up 3.3bp at 0.413%.
  • Gilt futures are up 0.01 today at 117.64 with 10y yields up 1.9bp at 1.929% and 2y yields up 7.2bp at 1.890%.
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