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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
RBA
In June Governor Bullock spoke about the labour market and mentioned the key labour market variables that the central bank is monitoring which include the unemployment and underemployment rates and vacancies-to-unemployment ratio. The September data was impacted by some volatility in the labour force but Q3 averages are pointing to a gradual slowing in a consistently tight labour market. This data on its own is likely to mean that the RBA is on hold in September. Q3 CPI due on October 25 and updated staff forecasts will be key to the decision.
- In September, the unemployment rate fell 0.1pp to 3.6% due to unemployed people leaving the labour force. Unrounded the rate was 3.557%, so close to 3.5%. Looking through the volatility though it rose to an average of 3.7% in Q3 up marginally from 3.6% in Q2 but only 0.2pp higher than the October 2022 trough. Thus through the volatility the unemployment rate has been fairly stable since May 2022. (see MNI Look Through Volatility, Jobs Market Tight But Easing)
- The RBA has cited the underemployment rate as a sign that the labour market has turned. September was impacted by the labour force drop but is still 0.5pp lower than the February trough. The Q3 average was 0.1pp higher than Q2 but still low at 6.4%.
Australia unemployment vs underemployment rates %
Source: MNI - Market News/ABS
- Q3 job vacancies fell 8.9% q/q resulting in the vacancies-to-unemployment ratio falling over 5pp to 73.1%, its lowest since Q4 2021 – another signal of an easing labour market.
Australia vacancies-to-unemployment ratio %
Source: MNI - Market News/Refinitiv
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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