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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
STIR FUTURES
- FOMC-dated Fed Funds futures have 42bps priced for the May meeting, 80bps for June (two meetings), 142bps for Sep (four meetings) and 185bps for Dec (six meetings).
- Mester (2022 voter) yesterday indicated she was in a similar camp to Waller: she doesn’t think 50bp hikes should be off the table, further implied by suggesting she was one of the three dots pencilling in a target range of 2.25-2.5% by year-end (i.e. 200bps of additional hikes).
- Powell speaks at 0800ET at the BIS Panel on Innovation but might not add much after his hawkish acceleration on Monday - Williams’ BIS participation yesterday had little mon pol implication.
- Doubling up after yesterday, Daly (2024 voter) is at 1145ET before double Bullard (2022) at 1500ET and 2105ET. Daly indicated she supports “marching up to neutral and looking at whether we need to go over neutral” but without a timeline, whilst Bullard has already revealed himself as the dot calling for a further 275bps of tightening this year.
Cumulative hikes implied for FOMC meetings by Fed Funds futuresSource: Bloomberg
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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