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Slightly weaker, Pressured by U.S. Tsys

AUSSIE BONDS

ACGBs sit near session cheaps (YM -3.0 & XM -1.0) ahead of the bell with U.S Tsys pressured in Asia-Pac trade by news of a surprise oil production cut of more than a 1milllion barrels a day by OPEC+. The local data drop today had failed to provide a domestic catalyst for a market that has shifted its focus to tomorrow’s RBA rates decision.

  • Cash ACGBs are 1-2bp cheaper with the 3/10c curve 1bp flatter with the AU-US 10-year yield differential +4bp at -21bp.
  • Swaps are flat to 1bp richer with the 3s10s curve flatter and EFPs 2bp narrower.
  • Bills pricing is 2-3bp weaker across the strip.
  • Ahead of the RBA policy decision tomorrow, RBA dated OIS is 1-4bp firmer for meetings beyond April with a 15% chance of a 25bp hike priced for tomorrow.
  • On the local data front, the Inflation Gauge eased to 5.7% in March from 6.3%, indicating that it likely peaked at 6.4% in January. Building Approvals showed a weaker-than-expected increase of 4.0% M/M (+10.0% expected) in February, while Home Loan data for February surprised on the upside with a fall of 0.9% M/M versus expectations of -1.8%.
  • Further afield, today’s calendar is scheduled to deliver final prints for March Manufacturing PMIs globally along with the ISM Manufacturing Survey.
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