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Slow Vaccination Campaign In EM Could Support USD vs. EM FX

US
  • The sharp liquidity injections following the Covid19 shock in March 2020 generated a strong support for risky assets and EM currencies relative to the US Dollar until the beginning of the second quarter of this year.
  • However, growing concerns over the Delta variant have increased demand for 'safe' assets such as the US Dollar in recent weeks.
  • This chart shows the strong divergence between DM and EM countries regarding the vaccination campaign.
  • As the percentage of population having received at least one dose of the Covid vaccine is much lower in the EM economies, the probability of a renewed period of lockdowns imposed by governments to fight the pandemic has been constantly rising.
  • Hence, the divergence in growth expectations between EM and DM could weigh on EM currencies against major crosses (USD, EUR, JPY) in the coming months.

Source: ourworldindata/MNI

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