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Small Miss For Existing Home Sales, Supply Recovery Stalls

US DATA
  • Existing home sales were softer than expected in August, surprisingly dipping -0.7% M/M (cons +0.7%) after an unrevised -2.2% M/M.
  • The small decline came with relatively small moves across the major regions, rising in the Midwest, unchanged in the northeast and slipping in the south and west.
  • The modest national decline further widens the gap to new home sales, with existing home sales more than 25% below pre-pandemic levels vs new home sales in excess of pre-pandemic levels.
  • Inventory of unsold homes dipping -0.9% M/M meant that the prior increase in the months of supply stalled at 3.3, unchanged from both July and Aug’22. Whilst higher than in the post-pandemic price boom, supply still remains far tighter than the 4-4.5 months in typical pre-pandemic summer months (blue lines in second chart below).
  • The latter is supporting prices, with the median sales price now up 4% Y/Y.

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