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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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Get the latest on Central Bank Policy and FX & FI Markets to help inform both your strategic and tactical decision-making.
Free AccessSNB Rate Cut Only Partially Priced, CHF Slides
- Unexpected rate cut - this was not fully priced (OIS had ~7bps of cuts priced pre-decision), so no surprise to see broad CHF weakness.
- Dovish adjustments in SNB-dated OIS in the wake of the 25bp cut, with only 7bp of easing priced for today’s meeting. A further 70bp of cuts are now priced through the remainder of ’24, with end of ’24 implied rate pricing ~15bp below pre-decision levels.
- Relatively little change to FX language - they remain prepared to intervene
- On inflation - broad downgrades across the forecast horizon (even with assumption of lower rates). New conditional inflation forecast is significantly lower than that of December. In the short term, due price momentum in some categories of goods slowing more quickly than had been expected in December. In the medium term, lower second-round effects are leading to a downward revision. Full table below:
SNB Conditional Inflation Forecast | Q12024 | Q22024 | Q32024 | Q42024 | Q12025 | Q22025 | Q32025 | Q42025 | Q12026 | Q22026 | Q32026 | Q42026 |
Forecast December 2023 | 1.8 | 2 | 2 | 1.9 | 1.7 | 1.6 | 1.6 | 1.6 | 1.6 | 1.6 | 1.6 | |
Forecast March 2024 | 1.2 | 1.4 | 1.5 | 1.4 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 1.1 | 1.1 |
To read the full story
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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.