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SocGen: Below-Consensus On CPI

US OUTLOOK/OPINION

SocGen has one of the lowest core CPI forecasts on the sell-side of just 0.2% M/M, 0.2pps below consensus, although they do acknowledge some upside risk.

  • They see "energy prices and to a lesser extent food prices as adding again to headline CPI" of 0.5% M/M.
  • Going ahead though, they still Y/Y inflation slowing materially in spring 2022 on base effects and note Powell attributing "a 2Q moderation of price pressures due to easing supply chain pressures".
  • Within core-CPI elements, they are most concerned about rent and the signaling this has for longer-term inflation and compensation expectations.
  • Upside risks are acknowledged in other Covid-sensitive categories such as apparel and cars but there is less concern than for rents.
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