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SocGen Now Sees 5 2022 Hikes

FED

SocGen now looks for 5 total 25bp Fed hikes in 2022 with liftoff in March, and three in 2023. Prior to the Jan FOMC they'd seen "at least" 3 hikes in each of 2022 and 2023.

  • They also see balance sheet runoff beginning in July (with an announcement in June) - previously they saw an October start.
  • However, they continue to see a terminal rate of 2.00-2.25% (i.e. 200bp of total hiking from here, unchanged from their previous expectations), which they note is above market expectations of 1.80%.
  • They don't see a 50bp hike as a risk for the March meeting, but "if inflation fails to slow later this year, the possibility of larger hikes would increase".
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