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SocGen On Mex Mid-Terms

MEXICO
  • Energy sector reforms are likely off the table
  • Based on the initial count, the result is a setback for President Obrador who will now have to cede ground to allies in policy making.
  • One big implication of the Chamber election results is that Obrador will not be able to push through the constitutional reform to annul the 2014 energy sector reforms, which allowed private-sector participation in oil exploration and production. This is a long-term positive for the energy sector, even if Obrador's policies will continue to present near-to-medium-term challenges for private investors in the sector.
  • Since Mexico's constitution bars the President from being elected for a second term, Obrador's personal popularity will likely have far fewer implications for longer-term politics and policy priorities.

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