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Soggy Recovery Efforts Keep Focus on the Downside

MNI (London)
  • USD continued to decent demand interest through Thursday's session, with Wednesday's hawkish FOMC the main driver.
  • EUR/USD extended its decline to $1.1892 before a mild recovery allowed it to settle back above $1.1900 into the close.
  • Rate clawed its way to $1.1925 in Asia before momentum faded and it eased back to $1.1908 ahead of the European open.
  • This muted recovery effort keeps focus on the downside, though being Friday we could see some 'corrective recovery' into the weekend.
  • Thursday's move saw rate break out of the base of its 1.0% 10-dma envelope, not support in itself but rate tends not to like being outside for long. This base has now moved down to $1.1965, with the base of the 2.0% envelope base now seen at $1.1844.
  • Support $1.1900/1.1892, $1.1870/60 with the 76.4% retrace, of the $1.1704-1.2266 coming in just below the 2.0% envelope base at $1.1837.
  • Resistance $1.1925 ahead of $1.1950/60 then $1.1980.
  • Germany PPI 0600GMT, EZ Current Account 0900GMT. ECOFIN meeting, Guindos to attend.
  • MNI Techs: EURUSD fell sharply Wednesday and remained under pressure yesterday. The recent breach of the 50-day EMA and 1.2104, Jun 4 low highlights a bearish theme and this week's sell-off reinforces current bearish sentiment. The focus is on 1.1837, a Fibonacci retracement where a break would open 1.1704, the Mar 31 low. On the upside, initial resistance is at 1.2006, yesterday's intraday high.
MNI London Bureau | +44 203-586-2231 |
MNI London Bureau | +44 203-586-2231 |

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