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Solid Further Trimming Of 2H23 Rate Cuts

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  • Fed Funds implied hikes have pushed higher overnight, pricing 24bp hike for March and a cumulative 41.5bp for May as two further 25bp hikes are more seriously considered.
  • The terminal now sits at 5.06% in June vs 4.89-4.9 prior to payrolls or circa 5% after payrolls and then ISM services were initially digested.
  • Largest changes are further out the curve with the Dec’23 effective rate now at 4.72%, from 4.4% prior to payrolls, as 2H23 cuts are trimmed to 34bps from 50bps early Friday.


FOMC-dated Fed Funds implied ratesSource: Bloomberg

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  • Fed Funds implied hikes have pushed higher overnight, pricing 24bp hike for March and a cumulative 41.5bp for May as two further 25bp hikes are more seriously considered.
  • The terminal now sits at 5.06% in June vs 4.89-4.9 prior to payrolls or circa 5% after payrolls and then ISM services were initially digested.
  • Largest changes are further out the curve with the Dec’23 effective rate now at 4.72%, from 4.4% prior to payrolls, as 2H23 cuts are trimmed to 34bps from 50bps early Friday.


FOMC-dated Fed Funds implied ratesSource: Bloomberg