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SONIA Futures Tick Higher Alongside Bonds

STIR

Global bond markets rally a little on ECB speak which filters into UK STIRs, although familiar ranges remain intact.

  • SONIA futures are flat to +5.0.
  • BoE-dated OIS moves back to pricing 64bp of '24 cuts.
  • The first 25bp cut is more than 90% priced come the end of the June MPC.
  • The UK release calendar is empty ahead of the weekend, which will leave focus on wider risk events (including U.S. NFPs) and cross-market flow.
  • Next week's UK releases include labour market, GDP and monthly economic activity data.
  • Next week will also see comments from BoE hawk Mann and the release of the Bank's inflation attitudes survey.
BoE MeetingSONIA BoE-Dated OIS (%)Difference Vs. Current Effective SONIA Rate (bp)
Mar-245.201+1.3
May-245.173-1.5
Jun-245.084-10.4
Aug-244.946-24.2
Sep-244.830-35.9
Nov-244.672-51.6
Dec-244.547-64.1
MNI London Bureau | +44 0203-865-3809 | anthony.barton@marketnews.com

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