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of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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Free AccessSONIA Futures Under Light Pressure
SONIA futures are flat to -4.5 through the blues, under light pressure early this week.
- BoE-dated OIS shows ~63bp of cuts for ’24, with ~24bp of easing priced through the end of the June ’24 MPC. ’24 contracts are little changed to 2.5bp firmer.
- Core global FI markets are off Friday’s highs, with some overnight focus on Japan officially recognising the end of deflation in the coming months.
- Elsewhere, domestic headline flow continues to be dominated by pre-Budget speculation.
- Weekend comments from Chancellor Hunt pointed to a “responsible” approach to fiscal easing.
- Local press source reports are seemingly biased towards slightly larger tax/national insurance cuts than they were 1 week ago.
- This will be applying some modest pressure to the SONIA strip.
- The local release & speaker calendar is empty on Monday, with focus centred on fiscal speculation ahead of Wednesday’s Budget.
BoE Meeting | SONIA BoE-Dated OIS (%) | Difference Vs. Current Effective SONIA Rate (bp) |
Mar-24 | 5.201 | +1.2 |
May-24 | 5.165 | -2.4 |
Jun-24 | 5.082 | -10.7 |
Aug-24 | 4.946 | -24.3 |
Sep-24 | 4.829 | -36.0 |
Nov-24 | 4.676 | -51.3 |
Dec-24 | 4.560 | -62.9 |
To read the full story
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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.