SOUTH AFRICA: Polling Shows ANC Just Above Crucial 42% Level As Election Looms

The latest daily tracking poll from SRF shows the governing African National Congress (ANC) would still be well short of the level of support required to maintain its majority in the National Assembly if the results were reflected in tomorrow's general election. President Cyril Ramaphosa's ANC recorded 42.2% support on 27 May, with the main opposition liberal Democratic Alliance (DA) with a recent low of 21.6%. The uMkhonto we Sizwe (MK) of former President Jacob Zuma is third on 12.4%, while the extreme-left Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF) sit fourth with 10.8% support. 

• The exact vote-percentage the ANC comes away with will prove crucial for the future of South Africa's political and economic outlook. Given the country's proportional voting system, the percentage of the vote won almost directly translates into seats won in the legislature. If the ANC recieves below 42% of the vote, it would likely prove impossible to form a majority with minor parties such as the IFP. An ANC-minor party coalition would likely be recieved well by markets as it would mean broad policy continuity.
• However, an ANC vote share below 42% would risk the need for a gov't with either the liberal DA (the ANC's long-time main adversaries) or the far-left MK or EFF. An ANC-MK/ANC-EFF gov't would risk major market volatility given the parties' call for extreme policies including land expropration and interest rate caps. 

Chart 1. General Election Tracking Poll, % (66% Turnout Model)

Source: SRF