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- Historically, equity returns tend to fall when inflationary pressures accelerate and CPI inflation rises above 4%.
- This chart shows a scatter plot of the SP500 PE ratio and CPI inflation, using monthly data since 1960.
- It is interesting to see that the PE ratio of US equities has never been that high (close to 30) for this level of inflation.
- The last time we saw elevated inflation and a PE ratio close to 30 (before last month) was in August 2000.
- Can the persistence of inflation generate a risk for US equities in the coming months?