SPAIN DATA: 2019 – 2023 GDP Growth Revised Higher In National Account Revisions

Spanish cumulative real GDP growth was revised 1.1pp higher between 2019 and 2023, following INE’s benchmark revisions of the national accounts. The revisions further cement Spain’s post-pandemic outperformance relative to Germany, France and Italy. Current Bloomberg consensus also expects Spanish GDP growth to outstrip the other three major EZ economies through 2024 - 2026.

• The upward revision to nominal GDP also meant that the 2023 debt/GDP ratio was revised 2.7pp lower to 105.0%.
• This brings the debt/GDP ratio below the Spanish Government’s forecast of 105.5% for 2024, which was presented as part of the EC’s Spring Package.
• Summarising the changes to overall real GDP growth across the last three years:
  • 2023 GDP growth was revised to 2.7% from 2.5% initial.
  • 2022 growth revised to 6.2% from 5.8% initial.
  • 2021 growth revised to 6.7% from 6.4% initial.
• The 2023 upgrade reflected a 1.4pp revision to public consumption growth to 5.2% (from 3.8% initial) and a 0.5pp revision to export growth to 2.8% (from 2.3% initial).
• This offset a downward revision to gross fixed capital formation to -1.6% from -0.4% initial.
• Household consumption and import growth were unrevised at 1.8% and 0.3% respectively.