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SPAIN DATA: 2019 – 2023 GDP Growth Revised Higher In National Account Revisions

SPAIN DATA
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Spanish cumulative real GDP growth was revised 1.1pp higher between 2019 and 2023, following INE’s benchmark revisions of the national accounts. The revisions further cement Spain’s post-pandemic outperformance relative to Germany, France and Italy. Current Bloomberg consensus also expects Spanish GDP growth to outstrip the other three major EZ economies through 2024 - 2026.

  • The upward revision to nominal GDP also meant that the 2023 debt/GDP ratio was revised 2.7pp lower to 105.0%.
  • This brings the debt/GDP ratio below the Spanish Government’s forecast of 105.5% for 2024, which was presented as part of the EC’s Spring Package.
  • Summarising the changes to overall real GDP growth across the last three years:
    • 2023 GDP growth was revised to 2.7% from 2.5% initial.
    • 2022 growth revised to 6.2% from 5.8% initial.
    • 2021 growth revised to 6.7% from 6.4% initial.
  • The 2023 upgrade reflected a 1.4pp revision to public consumption growth to 5.2% (from 3.8% initial) and a 0.5pp revision to export growth to 2.8% (from 2.3% initial).
  • This offset a downward revision to gross fixed capital formation to -1.6% from -0.4% initial.
  • Household consumption and import growth were unrevised at 1.8% and 0.3% respectively.
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Spanish cumulative real GDP growth was revised 1.1pp higher between 2019 and 2023, following INE’s benchmark revisions of the national accounts. The revisions further cement Spain’s post-pandemic outperformance relative to Germany, France and Italy. Current Bloomberg consensus also expects Spanish GDP growth to outstrip the other three major EZ economies through 2024 - 2026.

  • The upward revision to nominal GDP also meant that the 2023 debt/GDP ratio was revised 2.7pp lower to 105.0%.
  • This brings the debt/GDP ratio below the Spanish Government’s forecast of 105.5% for 2024, which was presented as part of the EC’s Spring Package.
  • Summarising the changes to overall real GDP growth across the last three years:
    • 2023 GDP growth was revised to 2.7% from 2.5% initial.
    • 2022 growth revised to 6.2% from 5.8% initial.
    • 2021 growth revised to 6.7% from 6.4% initial.
  • The 2023 upgrade reflected a 1.4pp revision to public consumption growth to 5.2% (from 3.8% initial) and a 0.5pp revision to export growth to 2.8% (from 2.3% initial).
  • This offset a downward revision to gross fixed capital formation to -1.6% from -0.4% initial.
  • Household consumption and import growth were unrevised at 1.8% and 0.3% respectively.