SPD Leads In Saarland Polls In Test Of Scholz's Popularity

The next German state election takes place in the smallest non-city state, Saarland, on 27 March. This will be the first German state election to take place since the September 2021 federal election. As such, the election will undoubtedly be used to gauge public support for the federal gov't, even if the majority of ballots will be cast by voters focusing on local issues.

• Infratest dimap poll: SPD: 38% (+5), CDU: 29% (+1), AfD: 8% (-1), FDP: 6% (-2), Greens: 6% (-2), Die Linke: 5% (-1), Others: 8% (=). Fieldwork: 8-12 Feb 22, Chgs w/ 24 Nov 21. 1,175 respondents.
• At present the CDU lead the state gov't in a 'grand coalition' with the SPD as the junior partner. Based on recent polling the current gov't could be re-formed easily, but with the SPD and CDU reversing the senior and junior roles.
• Depending on the vote shares on 27 March there could also be the potential for a centre-left 'traffic light' coalition of the SPD, Greens and FDP, mirroring that at the federal level, or a leftist 'R2G' of the SPD, Greens, and Die Linke.
• There is a 5% threshold for winning seats in the regional Landtag, meaning the FDP, Greens, and Die Linke could all miss out should their voters not turn out in sufficient numbers. The Greens have historically struggled for support in the Saarland, given its history as a centre of German coal mining.