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SPD Look Set For Big Win In 27 March State Election

GERMANY

The centre-left Social Democrats look set to become the largest party in the regional parliament of the German state of Saarland following the election taking place there on 27 March.

  • Saarland is Germany's smallest non-city state and therefore its regional election would not usually carry much importance beyond its regional borders.
  • However, the election is the first state-level vote since Chancellor Olaf Scholz's centre-left 'traffic light' coalition took power in Dec 2021. While many voters will cast their ballots based on local issues, the election will inevitably still be viewed as an indication of support levels for the Scholz gov't.
  • Latest polling shows the SPD on course to win a plurality. Currently the SPD governs as junior partner in a 'grand coalition' administration with the centre-right Christian Democratic Union (CDU).
    • FSG Wahlen poll SPD: 41% (+2), CDU: 28% (-2), AfD: 6.5% (+0.5), Greens: 5.5% (-0.5), FDP: 5% (=), Die Linke: 4% (=). Fieldwork: 21-24 March. chgs w/15-17 March. 2,375 respondents
  • Chancellor Scholz's stance on boosting defence spending significantly and providing offensive weaponry to Ukraine, while controversial among some in the German gov't and political sphere, has overwhelming public support, boosting his party in polls not just at the federal but also at the state level.
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The centre-left Social Democrats look set to become the largest party in the regional parliament of the German state of Saarland following the election taking place there on 27 March.

  • Saarland is Germany's smallest non-city state and therefore its regional election would not usually carry much importance beyond its regional borders.
  • However, the election is the first state-level vote since Chancellor Olaf Scholz's centre-left 'traffic light' coalition took power in Dec 2021. While many voters will cast their ballots based on local issues, the election will inevitably still be viewed as an indication of support levels for the Scholz gov't.
  • Latest polling shows the SPD on course to win a plurality. Currently the SPD governs as junior partner in a 'grand coalition' administration with the centre-right Christian Democratic Union (CDU).
    • FSG Wahlen poll SPD: 41% (+2), CDU: 28% (-2), AfD: 6.5% (+0.5), Greens: 5.5% (-0.5), FDP: 5% (=), Die Linke: 4% (=). Fieldwork: 21-24 March. chgs w/15-17 March. 2,375 respondents
  • Chancellor Scholz's stance on boosting defence spending significantly and providing offensive weaponry to Ukraine, while controversial among some in the German gov't and political sphere, has overwhelming public support, boosting his party in polls not just at the federal but also at the state level.