Speaker Johnson Prepares Funding Stopgap, Government Shutdown Unlikely

House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) is shortly due to hudde with GOP lawmakers to review his plan to fund the government beyond the September 30 deadline, according to Punchbowl News.

• Johnson is weighing up attaching the partisan SAVE Act in a short-term Continuing Resolution. Inclusion of the bill, backed by hardline conservatives, would slightly increase the risk of a government shutdown.
• Johnson must again navigate between his conservative flank and his moderate flank, which is averse to shutdown brinksmanship so close to a general election.
• Another potential issue, Democrats want a CR into mid-December, providing time to pass a spending omnibus during the lame-duck. Conservatives, eyeing a second Trump term, want a stopgap through March, when they see the possibility of a more favourable spending package.
• A March CR would require challenging negotiations on ~USD$50 billion of spending “anomalies” requested by the White House to keep key federal agencies funded.
• At the moment, the prospect of a shutdown appears low, but some analysts warn that Trump's influence could push conservatives close to the brink.
• Trump said on the Monica Crowley Show last week: “I would shut down the government in a heartbeat if they don’t get [the Save Act] in the [CR]... It should be in the bill. And if it’s not in the bill, you want to close it up. So I’m not there but, you know, I have influence.”
• Punchbowl notes: “House Republicans’ stated goal this month is to choose battles that unite Republicans and divide Democrats. This does have the prospect of dividing Democrats — five Democrats voted for the SAFE Act in July.”