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Spot USD/IDR Cuts Intraday Gain After BI Rate Decision, 1-Month NDF Show Only Brief Reaction

IDR

Spot USD/IDR trimmed gains as Bank Indonesia announced an unexpected 25bp rate hike and last sits +90 figs at 15,820. The pair printed fresh cyclical highs at 15,854 earlier in the day and bulls look for a resumption of gains towards the 16,000 mark. Bears look for a pullback towards the 50-EMA at 15,448.

  • USD/IDR 1-month NDF last seen +47 figs at 15,861, already unwinding the reaction to the Bank Indonesia rate decision. Topside focus is on 16,000, while bears keep an eye on the 50-EMA at 15,477.
  • The central bank described the move as "pre-emptive" and "forward-looking", intended to prevent potential imported inflation and contribute to the stabilisation of the rupiah. Stabilisation through triple intervention will continue.
  • Bloomberg circulated comments from RBC's Alvin Tan, who said that the rate hike was likely prompted by persistent pressure on the rupiah and INDOGBs amid rising global yields, which resulted in a break in USD/IDR through its post-pandemic highs.
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