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Spot USD/TWD Threatening Break Above 200-day MA

TWD

USD/TWD is sitting at multi-week highs, last at 30.865. This is right on the 200-day MA, which we haven't spent too much time above since mid March. The 1 month NDF has already breached this resistance point and is back at highs to Nov last year (last 30.965).

  • TWD's sensitivity to CNY moves is on display, with renewed weakness in the yuan hurting sentiment, while onshore equities are weak as well.
  • Still, the wedge between local equities and TWD remains large, with the currency not benefiting to any great degree during the tech led bull run from mid May to mid June.
  • Offshore investors have been sellers of local equities in recent sessions, but June flows to date still stand at +$2473.5mn.
  • Coming up we have Taiwan export orders for May. The market consensus is for little improvement, with the consensus at -21.3%, versus -18.1% prior.
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