Spread Between Confidence Measures Widens, RBA Call Revisions Still Roll In

YM and XM continue to oscillate around late overnight levels, moving away from Sydney lows in recent dealing, leaving YM -1.0 & XM +0.5, while wider cash ACGB trade sees 1.5bp of cheapening to 1.5bp of richening, pivoting around 7s as the curve twist flattens.

• Local data has seen the differential between business and consumer confidence indices widen, with the NAB business survey pushing back into positive territory for the first time since September, while the Westpac consumer confidence metric moved back towards the post-COVID lows, with pressures from inflation and related central bank tightening highlighted.
• RBA-dated OIS pricing is little changed, with NAB the latest to mark their terminal rate call higher, they now look for a peak of 4.10% in the current hiking cycle.
• Focus now shifts to the impending Japanese government nomination re: the next BoJ Governor and the U.S. CPI print.