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Stalemate Persists as Russia Pressures Kyiv to Accepts Neutrality/ Territorial Terms

  • USD/RUB BGN trades +5.76% higher this morning at 110.54 in illiquid trading, pulling back above the 100 handle after a few brief tries to hold below the level on Wed/Thurs.
  • Russia narrowly avoided a technical default by paying its $117m Eurobond coupon, but will likely face more difficulties on upcoming coupons as foreign currency becomes increasingly difficult to attain (see list attached below).
  • Over the weekend, Russia’s aerial assault of key cities continued, but continued to make little progress on Kyiv with troops going into defensive positions to shied them from Ukrainian counteroffensives.
  • Russia continues to exert pressure on Kyiv to accept its neutrality/territorial terms via rocket strikes on Kyiv and sieges on cities like Mariupol.
  • However, Kyiv is not willing to give an inch of territory at present, where Russia is demanding recognition of separatist republics and Crimea – which are key components to a ceasefire.
  • This will be the focus of talks this week as both sides have common ground on the NATO issue already. At this point, a ceasefire may be unlikely this week unless both sides make some key compromises.
MNI London Bureau | +44 020-3983-7894 |
MNI London Bureau | +44 020-3983-7894 |

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