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Steady FX Trade Leaves Little Dent in Ranges

FOREX
  • Steady FX trade has left little material dent in market prices ahead of the NY crossover. The USD Index is softer, but holds just above the 104.00 handle at typing. The modestly negative equity backdrop has done little to underpin any strength in haven currencies - with the JPY and CHF distinctly mid-range.
  • NOK sits modestly firmer, with USD/NOK just above yesterday's lows. Moves come ahead of this Friday's CPI release, providing the last look at inflation ahead of the June Norges Bank rate decision. Markets look for core inflation to remain sticky, leaving the board with little choice but to hike rates further, and indicate further tightening will be required to rein in inflation.
  • Outside of developed markets, TRY's slide has accelerated, with the USD/TRY and EUR/TRY rates spiking to new alltime highs. The moves come as the pace of state bank intervention slows, a firm indication of a return to more orthodox economic management under the new economy minister Simsek.
  • US trade balance data marks the sole data release Wednesday ahead of the Bank of Canada rate decision. The BoC is seen having a close decision between hiking this week or waiting five weeks until July.
  • Consensus leans to no change although market pricing has increased to 50/50 chance of a hike and we edge into the hike camp this week. Our full BoC preview found here: https://roar-assets-auto.rbl.ms/files/53365/BOCPre...
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