US DATA
Weekly jobless claims data continue to point to labor market solidity. Initial claims in the Feb 8 week fell more than expected to 213k (216k expected, 220k prior rev from 219k), while continuing claims in the Feb 1 week fell sharply to 1,850k (1,882k expected, 1,886k prior unrevised).
- For initial, that largely reversed the prior week's rise (208k to 220k), nudging the 4-week moving average down to 216k from 217k prior.
- Continuing meanwhile saw a continuation of the recent pattern of a decline in claims following a weekly rise: this pattern has been observed in every 2-week period since mid-October 2024. And like initial claims, continuing claims have steadied out into a fairly predictable range, of roughly 1,850k-1,900k (the average since the start of October 2024 is 1,873k).
- On a state-by-state basis, California saw the biggest increase in initial claims (+1.7k), but this was outweighed by drops in New York (3k)and Pennsylvania (2.9k) . For continuing, outsized drops were seen in Texas (-15.3k), Pennsylvania (-7.8k), California (-7.1k) and Florida (-6.1k). These figures mainly point to continued erratic claims from California, probably related to the wildfires in January (initial claims unusually jumped 60k mid-month).
- The main conclusion is that the weekly claims reports continue to provide evidence that the labor market is in solid shape - or as Fed Chair Powell put it in his semi-annual Congressional testimony, "very strong".
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