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Steepening Partially Reverses With FOMC Speakers, Gov't Shutdown Eyed

US TSYS

The Treasury curve has unwound some of Tuesday's sell-off / steepening in European morning trade Wednesday, with the long end outperforming

  • 10Y and 30Y 6+bp off highs of last 24 hrs. 2-Yr yield down 0.4bps at 0.297%, 5-Yr down 3.2bps at 0.9874%, 10-Yr down 4.3bps at 1.4942%, 30-Yr down 4.4bps at 2.042%.
  • Dec 10-Yr futures (TY) up 10/32 at 131-25 (L: 131-10 / H: 131-25.5), 560+k traded.
  • Global core bonds have seen gains alongside a rebound in equities, ie a partial reversal of Tuesday's moves (though the dollar remains on the front foot).
  • Another heavy Fed speaker slate today: Philly's Harker at 0900ET, Powell (w his BoE, BOJ, and ECB counterparts) on ECB Forum panel at 1145ET, SF's Daly at 1300ET, and Atl's Bostic at 1400ET.
  • Government shutdown looms Thurs night without a bill passed to avert; Congress could vote as soon as today on funding Gov't through Dec 3, per various news outlets.
  • Meanwhile the House Rules Committee meets this morning to prepare a debt limit suspension through mid-Dec 2022 - though that's likely to be blocked by Senate Republicans.
  • On that note, supply today: $30B 119-day bills (1130ET). NY Fed buys ~$2.025B of 22.5-30Y Tsys.
  • Conversely, quiet on the data front: weekly MBA mortgage apps at 0700ET and Aug pending home sales at 1000ET.

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