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Still +6.5bps Priced For Tomorrow’s FOMC Pre-CPI

STIR
  • FOMC-dated OIS implied rates are relatively little changed from yesterday’s close, with a reasonable push higher from strong UK labour data only unwinding weakness through Asia hours.
  • With CPI in the crosshairs, there is still +6.5bps priced for tomorrow’s FOMC decision and a cumulative +22bps to a terminal 5.30% effective in July before 24bp of cuts to year-end.
  • Cumulative changes: +6.5bp Jun (+0.5bp on the day), +22bp Jul (unch), +20.5bp Sep (+0.5bp), +11.5bp Nov (unch), -2bp Dec (-1bp) and -18bp Jun (+2.5bp).

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