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Strong Momentum in HUF is Giving NBH Policymakers a 'Breather'

HUNGARY
  • In May, we saw that the rise in inflationary pressures in the CEE region has led to an increase in disagreements between policymakers over the trajectory of ST rates in the coming months; the hawkish comment from deputy governor Virag led to a strong momentum on HUF in May, with the currency appreciating by nearly 5% against the US Dollar.
  • Despite the elevated inflation, investors took the opportunity last month when long term yields rose above 3% to pile into Hungarian bonds; the 10Y yield consolidated sharply by 30bps in the second half of May after finding a local high of 3.22% on May 18. The 10Y yield is currently trading slightly above 2.90%, next resistance to watch on the topside stands at 3%; on the downside, first support stands at 2.79% (50D SMA).
  • USDHUF has been consolidating lower in the past week after the pair find a local high of 287.50 last week; next supports to watch on the downside stands at 280, followed by 274. On the topside, first resistance stands at 290, followed by 295.
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