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Strong Supply Helping Keep Food Prices Down, Rice Lower In October

GLOBAL

FAO world food prices fell slightly in September to be down 10.7% y/y from -11.6%. The major categories were mixed with cereals and sugar higher on the month but dairy, meats and oils continuing to fall. The trough in food price deflation as well as energy prices appears to have slowed the pace of disinflation.

  • Cereal prices rose 1% m/m but are still down 14.6% y/y. The September increase was driven by rough rice and maize prices but wheat prices fell due to strong supply from Russia. Processed rice prices are down 2% m/m in October to date after rising over 20% between June and September.
  • Dairy prices fell for the ninth consecutive month and across all products and are now down 23.9% y/y following 22.4% in August due to lower import demand at a time of ample supply.
  • Meat prices fell for the third straight month due to robust supply and they are now down 5% y/y. There has also been weak import demand from China for pork.
  • Oil prices fell again and are now down 20.8% y/y due to strong production across varieties.
  • In contrast, global sugar prices rose sharply and are now 48.4% higher than a year ago up from 34.1% in August due to a tight market but Brazil’s upcoming plentiful harvest should take some of the pressure off.
Asia CPI y/y%

Source: MNI - Market News/Refinitiv

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