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Stronger GDP Sees Can-US Yield Diff Lift and USDCAD Test Latest Lows

CANADA
  • Clearly stronger than expected Canadian monthly GDP sees the Can-US yield differentials increase 2-2.5bps over 2-10Y tenors since the 0830ET data (or 2.5-3.5bps since the softer ADP print at 0815ET).
  • It’s also meant CAD has kept pace with other crosses amidst USD weakness from the QRA and softer than expected ECI, with USDCAD back to probing yesterday’s low of 1.3396 with support at 1.3382 (Jan 15 low).
  • GDP increased 0.2% M/M (cons 0.1) and indicated a stronger than expected 0.3% increase in Dec. If accurate it would see GDP growth on an industry basis rise 1.2% annualized in Q4. The BoC last week revised down its Q4 GDP forecast from 0.8% to 0.0% (but based on the different expenditure approach).
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