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Stronger, Mid-Range Ahead Of The RBA

AUSSIE BONDS

Ahead of the RBA rate decision today (0530 BST), ACGBs sit firmer mid-range (YM +5.0 & XM +4.0) with US Tsys slightly pressured in Asia-Pac trade as local participants fade Monday’s ISM-induced rally. A shift in focus to the inflationary impact of higher oil prices has also seemingly fueled JGBs to give back early strength. At the time of writing, US Tsy yields were 1-2bp higher from the NY close.

  • With the local market’s attention solely focused on today’s policy decision, RBA-dated OIS pricing is little changed across meetings with an 81% chance of a pause priced for today. 23bp of easing by year-end is priced off the expected May meeting terminal rate of 3.67%.
  • Cash ACGBs are 4-6bp richer, but well off session bests.
  • The AU-US 10-year yield differential is at -14bp.
  • Swaps rates are 4-5bp lower with EFPs little changed.
  • Bills strip has twist flattened with pricing -2 to +8bp.
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