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Stronger PLN and Higher 10Y Yield Ahead of July CPI Print

POLAND
  • Volatility in the Polish bond market has been rising in the past two days ahead of July CPI preliminary print coming out today (9am London time).
  • Inflation is expected to accelerate to 4.7% YoY according to sell-side estimates, up from 4.4% the previous month.
  • Poland 10Y yield has been retracing higher in the past few days, up 25bps since its Monday's low. It is currently trading slightly below its 50DMA at 1.72%; next level to watch on the topside stands at 1.80%. On the downside, first support stands at 1.66% (100DMA), followed by 1.60%.
  • USDPLN has been consolidating lower in the past few days after failing to break through its 3.90 resistance, currently trading slightly below the 3.85 level. First support to watch on the downside stands at 3.80 (100DMA), followed by 3.77 (200DMA). On the topside, ST resistance to watch remains at 3.90.
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